Topic: Iran's nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, quits
Ref: Ahmadinajed's Chicken Strategy
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Like any other such developments on the Iranian political stage, the unexpected replacement of Mr. Larijani with Mr. Jalili is replete with intricate and often invisible dimensions that make accurate assessments highly difficult, and is likely to keep Iran analysts busy for a while to come. But even so, a few basic points deserve mention here. |
The first notable issue of this story is perhaps that the Iranian Nuclear train is in turbulance. For a train whose brake, Mr. Ahmadinejad announced not long ago, has been broken off and is speeding on its downhill tracks, a turbulance of this magnitude can signify severe trouble. So even though the real reasons behind this abrupt shift may take a while to surface, and though only time can show the actual outcome of this move, the alarms have nonetheless gone off all around Iran, with analysts are interpreting Mr. Ahmadinejad's most recent move as anything from a disasterous mistake to a downright coup.
One of the first questions asked is this: "should the ommission of Mr. Larijani be read as an attempt at ommiting or at any rate weakening the influence of the Supreme Leader ?" Larijani was, after all, Ayatollah Khamenei's represenative. The fact is that some observers had already proposed a coup theory the day when Ahmadinejad annouced he has thrown away the brakes of the Iranian Atomic Train. It may not be so far from reality, in other words, to consider the change as another little page turned for the coup theory.
On the other hand, a quick review of Saeed Jalili's talks and interviews show a clear and stable feature, namely a quality of constantly adhering to the main basic policy lines of the Islamic Republic. There is in fact something of a striking exaggeration in his style of 'adherence' that makes it almost impossible to see the real person in him. He is so well trained in speaking simply the basic policy lines instead of making any opinions, that gives one the impression of a recorded machine. His real duty seems to be simply finding out which recorded message would be the closest to the posed question, and to push the 'play' button to the right message. In addition to that, according to Reuters, "Diplomats who have met Jalili say he expresses strongly held convictions and sticks firmly to his position in discussions. One diplomat said he 'specializes in monologue' rather than debate."
Given the common belief that Mr. Ahmadinejad has indeed been selecting his surroundings figures from people who would a) be of the same fanatical convictions as he is, and b) struggle for his ideals with highest loyalty and least 'character', many are afraid that this latest shuffle is yet another step in the direction of a hegemony of fanatical messianism. Such a selection appears indeed more bleak, given the sensitive moments Iranian diplomacy machine is facing (and that due mainly to Mr. Ahmadinejad's unidirectionaly policies and rhetorics), and that rather than messaging boxes and broken records, the Iranians need people of character and integrity with high capacity of innovative thinking and strategic flexibility, if they are ever to save themselves from the death trap Mr Ahmadinejad's brakeless train is rushing them into.
With this latest stunt for remote controlling the atomic negotiations in Europe, Mr Ahmadinejad appears to have managed to throw the driver off his already brakeless train.
Saeed Jalili, Interview with Boston Globe
Reuters Factbox on Saeed Jalili
